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| Titel |
Probabilistic evaluation of riprap failure under future uncertain flood conditions: the case study of river Kleine Emme (Switzerland) |
| VerfasserIn |
Mona Jafarnejad, Michael Pfister, Mário J. Franca, Anton J. Schleiss |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250095715
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-11183.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Potential failure for river bank protection measures is a critical issue to be evaluated for the
safety and stability assessment. Moreover, uncertainties associated to flood conditions and
sediment transport in rivers, as a possible result of climate change in the future, affects the
safety level of such riverbank protection structures as riprap and walls. Bank failure can lead
to uncontrolled erosion and flooding with disastrous consequences in residential areas or in
critical infrastructures. The probabilistic analysis of failure on different mechanisms due to
possible flood events and sediment transport is a principal step to assess embankment
stability in future scenarios.
Herein, a probabilistic risk assessment model to define the failure risk of river bank
ripraps, developed based on Monte Carlo simulation and Moment Analysis Methods, is
showed. This probabilistic simulation estimates the resistance of ripraps regarding varied
flood and sediment transport scenarios in future. The failure probability of ripraps is assessed
by a probabilistic function of the design safety factor. The probability of failure in different
mechanisms such as direct block erosion, toe scouring and overtopping is defined by taking
into account the modified bed-load transport due to a probabilistic function of the design
discharge.
This evaluation method is applied to a Swiss river located in Canton Lucerne, the Kleine
Emme. The results highlight the failure probability of riverbank riprap associated to different
mechanisms individually. A risk map to represent the risk of total failure along a longitudinal
profile of the river is proposed. |
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