 |
| Titel |
Climate change signal of thunderstorm frequency using high-resolution COSMO-CLM simulations |
| VerfasserIn |
Lukas Schefczyk, Guenther Heinemann |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
|
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250095481
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-10937.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| It is generally assumed that temperature increase associated with global climate change will
lead to increased thunderstorm intensity and associated heavy precipitation events. In the
present study it is investigated whether the frequency of thunderstorm occurrences will in- or
decrease and how the spatial distribution will change for the A1B scenario. The region of
interest is Saar-Lor-Lux region (Saarland, Lorraine, Luxembourg) with a focus on
Rhineland-Palatinate.
Hourly and daily model data of the COSMO-CLM is used with a horizontal resolution of
4.5km and 1.3km. The simulations were carried out for three different decades: 1991-2000
(C20), 2041-2050 (A1B) and 2091-2100 (A1B). Thunderstorm indices are calculated to
detect potential thunderstorms and differences in their frequency of occurrence in the three
decades. The indices used are CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), SLI (Surface
Lifted Index), and TSP (Thunderstorm Severity Potential), which combines deep-layer-shear
and the maximum vertical velocity. The significance of a potential climate signal was tested
with a t-test and a power analysis was performed to quantify the uncertainty of the
signal.
The investigation of the present and future thunderstorms shows that the regional
averaged frequencies will decrease in general, but several regions like the Saarland and
especially elevated areas will have a potential increase in thunderstorm occurrences and
intensity. Statistically, nearly none of the signals is significant and the power analysis yields
low power to detect changes of severe thunderstorms but high power for classes with no to
light thunderstorms. Therefore it can be concluded that the frequency of severe thunderstorm
is not likely to increase. |
|
|
|
|
|
|