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| Titel |
Anthropogenic carbon and heat uptake in CMIP5 models: The dominance of the Southern Ocean |
| VerfasserIn |
Thomas Frölicher, Jorge Sarmiento, David Paynter, John Dunne, Michael Winton |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250095124
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-10567.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We assess the global ocean anthropogenic CO2 and heat uptake and storage over the period
1861 to 2005 in a new set of coupled carbon-climate Earth System models conducted
for the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), with a particular
focus on the Southern Ocean. Simulations show the Southern Ocean south of 30°S,
occupying 30% of global surface ocean area, accounts for 43 ± 3% (42 ± 5 Pg C) of
anthropogenic CO2 and 75 ± 22% (23 ± 9 1022 J) of heat uptake by the ocean over the
historical period. Northward transport out of the Southern Ocean is relatively small,
implying storage of 33 ± 6 Pg anthropogenic carbon and 12 ± 7 1022 J heat in
the region. The CMIP5 models as a class underestimate the global anthropogenic
carbon inventory by about 15%, but simulate trends in global ocean heat content over
the last fifty years within uncertainties of observation-based estimates. In contrast
to forced ocean studies, CMIP5 models suggest global and Southern Ocean CO2
uptake have been largely unaffected by recent climate change. Uptake and storage of
anthropogenic carbon and heat substantially differ on the regional scale confirming that
different mechanisms regulate heat and CO2 uptake. Our results spotlight the crucial
Southern Ocean role in the Earth System’s response to climate change and as the
region where models differ most in representation of both heat and CO2 uptake. |
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