 |
| Titel |
Time-varying loss forecast for an earthquake scenario in Basel, Switzerland |
| VerfasserIn |
Marcus Herrmann, Jeremy D. Zechar, Stefan Wiemer |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
|
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250095093
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-10534.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| When an unexpected earthquake occurs, people suddenly want advice on how to cope with
the situation. The 2009 L’Aquila quake highlighted the significance of public communication
and pushed the usage of scientific methods to drive alternative risk mitigation strategies. For
instance, van Stiphout et al. (2010) suggested a new approach for objective evacuation
decisions on short-term: probabilistic risk forecasting combined with cost-benefit
analysis. In the present work, we apply this approach to an earthquake sequence
that simulated a repeat of the 1356 Basel earthquake, one of the most damaging
events in Central Europe. A recent development to benefit society in case of an
earthquake are probabilistic forecasts of the aftershock occurrence. But seismic risk
delivers a more direct expression of the socio-economic impact. To forecast the
seismic risk on short-term, we translate aftershock probabilities to time-varying
seismic hazard and combine this with time-invariant loss estimation. Compared
with van Stiphout et al. (2010), we use an advanced aftershock forecasting model
and detailed settlement data to allow us spatial forecasts and settlement-specific
decision-making. We quantify the risk forecast probabilistically in terms of human loss. For
instance one minute after the M6.6 mainshock, the probability for an individual to die
within the next 24 hours is 41 000 times higher than the long-term average; but
the absolute value remains at minor 0.04 %. The final cost–benefit analysis adds
value beyond a pure statistical approach: it provides objective statements that may
justify evacuations. To deliver supportive information in a simple form, we propose a
warning approach in terms of alarm levels. Our results do not justify evacuations prior
to the M6.6 mainshock, but in certain districts afterwards. The ability to forecast
the short-term seismic risk at any time—and with sufficient data anywhere—is
the first step of personal decision-making and raising risk awareness among the
public.
Reference
Van Stiphout, T., S. Wiemer, and W. Marzocchi (2010). “Are short-term evacuations
warranted? Case of the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake”. In: Geophysical Research Letters
37.6, pp. 1–5. url: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/ 2009GL042352/abstract. |
|
|
|
|
|
|