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| Titel |
A probabilistic assessment of volcanic ash hazard to aviation in Southeast Asia |
| VerfasserIn |
Xu Zhang, Patrick Whelley, Benoit Taisne, Chris Newhall |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250094846
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-10279.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Southeast Asia is home to hundreds of active volcanoes, largely clustered over the island
chains of the Philippines and Indonesia. The prominent large scale weather feature in this
region is dominated by Monsoons. The prevailing winds during the monsoon seasons can
drive volcanic ash clouds over the South China Sea. Since this region is a busy aviation
corridor it is important to evaluate the risk to aviation operations. This study quantifies the
long-term probability that this region will be adversely affected by volcanic ash, through
calculating the probability of eruptions for a range of magnitudes as well as the
trajectory of the resulting ash plumes. Approximately 750 active or potentially active
volcanoes are identified in Southeast Asia. They are separated into five classes by
their morphology and eruptive style. For each volcano class, the typical eruption
magnitude and frequencies are determined. The volcanoes are further divided into 23
geographical zones and the likelihood of each magnitude eruption for all volcano zones is
estimated. Dispersion modelling is employed to estimate the concentration and extent of
volcanic ash plumes based on hypothetical eruptions of Volcano Explosivity Index
of 3 to 8 and 3 years of historical meteorological data. Preliminary results show
that in the next decade, there is a 30 to 60% chance that volcanic ash will affect
any part of the air space above the South China Sea between 6096m to 10668m
at a concentration exceeding 2mg/m3. Half of this region has a 43% or greater
chance of containing more than 2mg/m3 of volcanic ash. This is largely in agreement
with 30 years of observations, with the exception west of Sumatra, where more
ash is predicted than has been observed. The findings in this study can be used to
inform scenario planning and mitigation strategy for regional aviation industry. |
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