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| Titel |
Recurrence properties as signatures for abrupt climate change |
| VerfasserIn |
Norbert Marwan, Sebastian Breitenbach, Birgit Plessen, Denis Scholz, Jens Leonhardt |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250093810
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-8893.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The study of recurrence properties of dynamical systems has been shown to be very
successful in characterising typical dynamical behaviour, finding regime transitions, or
detecting couplings and synchronisations, even for short, noisy, and nonstationary data, as
typical in Earth Sciences. Recurrence plots and their quantifications are powerful
techniques for the investigation of recurrence and increasingly attract attention in recent
years.
We demonstrate the potential of the newly introduced extension of recurrence plot
analysis by complex network measures for the detection of abrupt dynamical changes. This
method is applied on a Holocene palaeoclimate data set from Central Europe derived
from a stalagmite from Blessberg Cave, Thuringia, Germany. The stalagmite δ18O
proxy record covers the middle to late Holocene (6000–400 yearsBP). Dating
uncertainties are considered by an ensemble approach derived from the COPRA
framework. Characteristic changes in the recurrence properties reflecting regular
dynamics coincide well with the occurrence of the Bond events 1, 2, and 3. During
Bond events the Central European climate variability appears more regular. The
analysis presented here examplifies the potency of quantitative recurrence methods in
detecting climatic events, which otherwise remain hidden in the raw proxy time series. |
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