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| Titel |
Decadal predictability of the Arctic sea ice in Atlantic marginal seas and its link with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the IPSL-CM5A-LR model. |
| VerfasserIn |
Agathe Germe, Juliette Mignot, Didier Swingedouw, Eric Guilyardi |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250093444
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-8162.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The Arctic sea-ice cover has been shown to be more predictable in the Atlantic than in the
Pacific sector in several climate models (Koenigk et al., 2006; Koenigk and Mikolajewicz,
2009; Germe et al., in Rev.). Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain this higher
predictability including, for example, sea-ice advection through Fram Strait (Koenigk et al.,
2006), or the advection of Atlantic water temperature and salinity anomalies (Schlichtholz,
2011). Koenigk et al. (2012) highlighted a negative correlation between the Atlantic
meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the sea-ice thickness in those areas that
could also explain part of this predictability. In this study, we explore the impact of the
AMOC on the variability and predictability of the sea ice in the Arctic marginal seas
as represented in the IPSL-CM5ALR climate model. This analysis is based on a
1000 year preindustrial control simulation performed in the framework of the fifth
phase of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5), as well as on a set of
perfect model ensemble experiments of predictability sampling different initial
states of the AMOC (Persechino et al., 2013). Focusing on the marginal seas of the
Atlantic sector – the Labrador, Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian, and Barents Seas –,
the diagnostic and prognostic potential predictability of the sea-ice fraction and
thickness is analysed and related to the influence of the AMOC initial state and
variations.
Germe A., M. Chevallier, D. Salas y Mélia, E. Sanchez-Gomez and C. Cassou (2014)
Interannual predictability of Arctic sea ice in a global climate model: Regional contrasts and
temporal evolution, Clim. Dyn. (in rev.)
Koenigk T., C. K. Beatty, M.Caian, R. Dösher, and K. Wyser (2012) Potential decadal
predictability and its sensitivity to sea ice albedo parameterization in a global coupled model.
Clim. Dyn., 38:2389-2408, doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1132-z
Koenigk T., and U. Mikolajewicz (2009) Seasonal to interannual climate predictability in
mid and high northern latitudes in a global climate model, Clim. Dyn., 32:783-798. Doi:
10.1007s00382-008-0419-1
Koenigk T., U. Mikolajewicz, H. Haak, and J. Jungclaus (2006) Variability of Fram Strait
sea ice export: causes, impacts and feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Clim. Dyn.,
26:17-34, doi: 10.1007/s00382-005-0060-1
Persechino A., J. Mignot, D. Swingedouw, S. Labetoulle, and E. Guilyardi (2012)
Decadal predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate in the
IPSL-CM5A-LR model. Clim. Dyn., 40:2359-2380, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1466-1
Schlichtholz P. (2011) Influence of oceanic heat variability on sea ice anomalies
in the Nordic Seas. Geophys. Res. Let., 38:L05705, doi:10.1029/1010GL045894 |
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