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| Titel |
Where do climate impacts really matter? The AHEAD framework |
| VerfasserIn |
Tabea Lissner, Dominik E. Reusser, Jacob Schewe, Tobia Lakes, Jürgen P. Kropp |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250093362
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-8005.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We present a novel approach to systematically linking climate impacts to human livelihoods
and well-being. It is based on the transdisciplinary concept of Adequate Human livelihood
conditions for wEll-being And Development (AHEAD), and allows addressing several
topical challenges of climate impact assessments, such as the integration of research
philosophies and concepts from different disciplines, but also aspects of data integration as
well as the combination of processes at different scales. Another particular challenge for such
assessments lies in the treatment of uncertainties, which normally multiply along the
assessment chain. Especially uncertainties deriving from modelling differences
as well as emission scenarios play an important role here. As the Inter-Sectoral
Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) has recently shown shown, these
impact modelling uncertainties are generally large. Our approach offers a useful way
of dealing with these uncertainties, by assessing their relevance in a fuzzy-logic
framework.
To illustrate the utility of the AHEAD approach, we assess the adequacy of AHEAD
conditions on a global scale at national resolution. We focus in particular on the availability
of water resources in adequate quantity and quality, which plays an important role in meeting
human livelihood needs, and we use multi-model water resource estimates from ISI-MIP. Our
results indicate that water availability limits the adequacy of livelihood conditions
in some countries today, a situation which will aggravate over the course of the
century; however for the majority of countries other aspects limit the adequacy of
livelihood conditions. The presented approach shows how uncertainty ranges in
modelling results may be framed in a way which allows assessing their relevance with
regard to specific questions. The uncertainty range of data on water availability is
considerable for many countries, but for more than a third of the countries this range is
outside of critical thresholds for water security and overall AHEAD conditions. |
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