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| Titel |
HEPS challenges the wisdom of the crowds: the PEAK-Box Game. Try it yourself! |
| VerfasserIn |
Massimiliano Zappa, Kaethi Liechti, Florian Pappenberger, Schalk Jan van Andel, Maria-Helena Ramos |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250089664
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-3873.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In many situations the wisdom of the crowds (Galton, 1907) demonstrated to be superior to the estimation of single individuals. This is maybe one of the reasons why operational hydrometeorological services are more and more recognizing the added value given by ensemble prediction systems. A crowd of members has more wisdom than a single model output.
Following a recent tradition, this year a game will also be played during the session on “Ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting”. During this presentation, the crowd attending the session will be asked to estimate the outcome of a probabilistic prediction system and to perform better than the Peak-Box approach. The “Peak-Box” is a novel visual support that can be communicated alongside with ensemble discharge forecasts (Zappa et al., 2013). This visual solution should provide support in the assessment of actions relying on accurate estimation of peak-timings and peak-flows.
Results will be presented and discussed together with the participants of the session. Furthermore a blog post will appear later on www.hepex.org.
References:
Galton F. 1907.Vox populi. Nature 75: 450-451.
Zappa M, Fundel F, Jaun S. 2013. A “Peak-Flow Box” Approach for Supporting Interpretation and Evaluation of Operational Ensemble Flood Forecasts. Hydrological processes. 27: 117-131. doi:/10.1002/hyp.9521 |
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