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| Titel |
A Study on Assessment of Uncertainty Associated with Design Rainfall and Selection of Probability Density Function |
| VerfasserIn |
Sumiya Uranchimeg, Hyun-Han Kwon, Jin-Guk Kim |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250089452
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-3655.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Abstract
Selection of an appropriate probability density function is the most essential process in a hydrologic frequency analysis. Therefore, various probability density functions have been applied to the frequency analysis, however, there is no clear standard for choosing the best probability density function. A relatively short-term hydrologic data causes significant uncertainty in estimating long term design rainfall or floods. In many design practices, design values over 100-year return period based on 40-year hydrologic data. In this study, we will introduce a parameter estimation method which is based on a Hierarchical Bayesian model for quantitative analysis of uncertainties associated with parameters of the selected probability density function (e.g. Gumbel and GEV distribution). This study also introduces a new goodness-of-fit test for selection of probability density function based on DIC (Deviance Information Criteria) which considers parameter uncertainty and the number of parameters.
Key words : Bayesian model, Gumbel distribution, GEV distribution, DIC
Acknowledgement
This research was supported by a grant(11CTIPC02) from Construction Technology Innovation Program (CTIP) funded by Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs of Korean government. |
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