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| Titel |
Predictive signs of high-magnitude mainshocks based on the analysis of time behaviour of fractal parameters |
| VerfasserIn |
Maria-Dolors Martinez, Seyed Amir Hosseini, Xavier Lana, Carina Serra |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250088646
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-2779.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The predictability of three high-magnitude mainshocks at Southern California (Landers,
1992, MW7.3; Northridge, 1994, MW6.7; Hector Mine, 1999, MW7.1) is investigated by
analysing the time evolution of several fractal parameters. The database is obtained from the
SCSN (Southern California Seismic Network) catalogue for the 1981-2007 recording period
and spatially restricted to the three aftershock areas. The analysed time series are interevent
times, Ï, and interevent distances, Δ, between consecutive events, equalling to or exceeding
MW 2.0. Time series include then background seismicity and aftershock activity.
The purpose is attempting to find out predictive signs for these mainshocks by
searching for peaks in the time evolution of two fractal parameters: lacunarity and
Hurst exponent. The first goal would be to detect a peak before the mainshock. The
second goal would be assessing the significance of this peak by comparing fractal
parameters deduced for real time series with those derived for simulated seismic
background activity. Although far, the results are not absolutely conclusive up to now,
the combined use of lacunarity and Hurst exponent sometimes permits detecting
warnings of a future mainshock. As an example, the lacunarity time evolution for Δ
gives a warning of Landers mainshock approximately two months before. Another
example is an early warning of Northridge mainshock when analysing Ï series. |
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