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| Titel |
On validation of regional atmosphere and wave models for the Black Sea region |
| VerfasserIn |
Vladimir Dulov, Mikhail Shokurov, Katerina Chechina, Takvor Soukissian, Vladimir Malinovsky |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250088235
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-2322.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Mesoscale atmospheric models MM5 and WRF adapted to the Black Sea region in Marine
Hydrophysical Institute (MHI, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine) together with wave
model WAM are widely using in the last decade. Black Sea meteorological and wave
climate assessing, 3-5 days operational forecast, researches of various physical
phenomena typical for the Black Sea coastal zone are examples of application of
such regional model calculations. Therefore we made some inspection of their
quality.
Results of operational regional forecast of catastrophic weather events in the Black Sea
region are considered. Flooding of 6-7 July 2012 in the Krasnodar Region, Russia caused a
loss of more than 170 lives and huge economic damage. Hazardous storm of 11 November
2007 near the Crimean coast caused accidents and sinks of many vessels including ones
carrying fuel oil and sulfur, more than 20 members of the crews were missing and severe
ecological damage was suffered. However, the forecast of rainfall intensity had appeared five
days before the flood at free access on the Internet website http://vao.hydrophys.org and the
forecast of the wave height appeared on the same website three days before the
storm. Quality of the regional forecast and its advantages over the global forecast are
discussed.
In situ wave data including 2D wave spectra obtained at the MHI Black Sea Research
Platform in 2012-2013 over all seasons were compared with model calculations. The distance
of the Platform to the shore is 0.5 km where the sea depth is 28 m. Only part of wave
spectrum belonging to wave frequencies lower than 0.4 Hz was considered to filter out waves
developing from the coastal line. It is concluded that scatter indexes for modeled significant
wave height and mean frequency are about of 50% and 15%. Some systematic defects of
model calculations are revealed but the use of the model-based forecasts could lead to
significant reduction in human losses and economic damage from catastrophic weather
events.
The core support of this work was provided by the European Community’s Seventh
Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under grant Agreement 287844 for the project
“Towards COast to COast NETworks of marine protected areas (from the shore to the high
and deep sea), coupled with sea-based wind energy potential (CoCoNet)”. The
research leading to these results has also received funding from Ukrainian State
Agency of Science, Innovations and Information under contracts F53/117-2013 and
M/281-2013. Authors gratefully acknowledge continuing support of these foundations. |
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