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| Titel |
On the probability of extinction of the Haiti cholera epidemic |
| VerfasserIn |
Enrico Bertuzzo, Flavio Finger, Lorenzo Mari, Marino Gatto, Andrea Rinaldo |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250088110
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-2186.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Nearly 3 years after its appearance in Haiti, cholera has already exacted more than 8,200
deaths and 670,000 reported cases and it is feared to become endemic. However, no clear
evidence of a stable environmental reservoir of pathogenic Vibrio cholerae, the infective
agent of the disease, has emerged so far, suggesting that the transmission cycle of the disease
is being maintained by bacteria freshly shed by infected individuals. Thus in principle
cholera could possibly be eradicated from Haiti. Here, we develop a framework for
the estimation of the probability of extinction of the epidemic based on current
epidemiological dynamics and health-care practice. Cholera spreading is modelled
by an individual-based spatially-explicit stochastic model that accounts for the
dynamics of susceptible, infected and recovered individuals hosted in different
local communities connected through hydrologic and human mobility networks.
Our results indicate that the probability that the epidemic goes extinct before the
end of 2016 is of the order of 1%. This low probability of extinction highlights
the need for more targeted and effective interventions to possibly stop cholera in
Haiti. |
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