 |
| Titel |
Future intensification of hourly rainfall in a convection permitting climate model |
| VerfasserIn |
Elizabeth Kendon, Nigel Roberts, Hayley Fowler, Steven Chan, Malcolm Roberts, Cath Senior |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
|
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250087070
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-1083.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| The first climate change experiments with a convection-permitting model have
been carried out for a region of the UK. This (1.5km) model gives a much more
realistic representation of the characteristics of hourly rainfall compared to a coarser
resolution (12km) regional climate model (RCM), giving us greater confidence in its
ability to reliably project future changes. Both models show very similar changes in
hourly rainfall in winter, but quite different changes in summer. The 1.5km-RCM
shows evidence of an intensification of short-duration rain in summer not seen in the
12km-RCM. This leads to significantly more events exceeding high thresholds
indicative of likely flash flooding. Results here suggest representation of the local
storm dynamics is essential for predicting future change in convective extremes. |
|
|
|
|
|
|