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| Titel |
Decomposition of the complex system into nonlinear spatio-temporal modes: algorithm and application to climate data mining |
| VerfasserIn |
Alexander Feigin, Andrey Gavrilov, Evgeny Loskutov, Dmitry Mukhin |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2015
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 17 (2015) |
| Datensatznummer |
250106541
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2015-6217.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Proper decomposition of the complex system into well separated “modes” is a way to reveal and understand the mechanisms governing the system behaviour as well as discover essential feedbacks and nonlinearities. The decomposition is also natural procedure that provides to construct adequate and concurrently simplest models of both corresponding sub-systems, and of the system in whole.
In recent works two new methods of decomposition of the Earth’s climate system into well separated modes were discussed. The first method [1-3] is based on the MSSA (Multichannel Singular Spectral Analysis) [4] for linear expanding vector (space-distributed) time series and makes allowance delayed correlations of the processes recorded in spatially separated points. The second one [5-7] allows to construct nonlinear dynamic modes, but neglects delay of correlations. It was demonstrated [1-3] that first method provides effective separation of different time scales, but prevent from correct reduction of data dimension: slope of variance spectrum of spatio-temporal empirical orthogonal functions that are “structural material” for linear spatio-temporal modes, is too flat. The second method overcomes this problem: variance spectrum of nonlinear modes falls essentially sharply [5-7]. However neglecting time-lag correlations brings error of mode selection that is uncontrolled and increases with growth of mode time scale.
In the report we combine these two methods in such a way that the developed algorithm allows constructing nonlinear spatio-temporal modes. The algorithm is applied for decomposition of (i) multi hundreds years globally distributed data generated by the INM RAS Coupled Climate Model [8], and (ii) 156 years time series of SST anomalies distributed over the globe [9]. We compare efficiency of different methods of decomposition and discuss the abilities of nonlinear spatio-temporal modes for construction of adequate and concurrently simplest (“optimal”) models of climate systems.
1. Feigin A.M., Mukhin D., Gavrilov A., Volodin E.M., and Loskutov E.M. (2013) “Separation of spatial-temporal patterns (“climatic modes”) by combined analysis of really measured and generated numerically vector time series”, AGU 2013 Fall Meeting, Abstract NG33A-1574.
2. Alexander Feigin, Dmitry Mukhin, Andrey Gavrilov, Evgeny Volodin, and Evgeny Loskutov (2014) “Approach to analysis of multiscale space-distributed time series: separation of spatio-temporal modes with essentially different time scales”, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 16, EGU2014-6877.
3. Dmitry Mukhin, Dmitri Kondrashov, Evgeny Loskutov, Andrey Gavrilov, Alexander Feigin, and Michael Ghil (2014) “Predicting critical transitions in ENSO models, Part II: Spatially dependent models”, Journal of Climate (accepted, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00240.1).
4. Ghil, M., R. M. Allen, M. D. Dettinger, K. Ide, D. Kondrashov, et al. (2002) “Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series”, Rev. Geophys. 40(1), 3.1–3.41.
5. Dmitry Mukhin, Andrey Gavrilov, Evgeny M Loskutov and Alexander M Feigin (2014) “Nonlinear Decomposition of Climate Data: a New Method for Reconstruction of Dynamical Modes”, AGU 2014 Fall Meeting, Abstract NG43A-3752.
6. Andrey Gavrilov, Dmitry Mukhin, Evgeny Loskutov, and Alexander Feigin (2015) “Empirical decomposition of climate data into nonlinear dynamic modes”, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 17, EGU2015-627.
7. Dmitry Mukhin, Andrey Gavrilov, Evgeny Loskutov, Alexander Feigin, and Juergen Kurths (2015) “Reconstruction of principal dynamical modes from climatic variability: nonlinear approach”, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 17, EGU2015-5729.
8. http://83.149.207.89/GCM_DATA_PLOTTING/GCM_INM_DATA_XY_en.htm.
9. http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.KAPLAN/.EXTENDED/.v2/.ssta/. |
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