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| Titel |
Application of nonlinear autoregressive moving average exogenous input models to geospace: advances in understanding and space weather forecasts |
| VerfasserIn |
R. J. Boynton, M. A. Balikhin, S. A. Billings, O. A. Amariutei |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
0992-7689
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Annales Geophysicae ; 31, no. 9 ; Nr. 31, no. 9 (2013-09-26), S.1579-1589 |
| Datensatznummer |
250086109
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/angeo-31-1579-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX)
system identification technique is applied to various aspects of the
magnetospheres dynamics. It is shown, from an example system, how the inputs
to a system can be found from the error reduction ratio (ERR) analysis, a key
concept of the NARMAX approach. The application of the NARMAX approach to the
Dst (disturbance storm time) index and the electron fluxes at geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) are
reviewed, revealing new insight into the physics of the system. The review of
studies into the Dst index illustrate how the NARMAX approach is able to find
a coupling function for the Dst index from data, which was then analytically
justified from first principles. While the review of the electron flux
demonstrates how NARMAX is able to reveal new insight into the physics of the
acceleration and loss processes within the radiation belt. |
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