 |
| Titel |
One-way coupling of an integrated assessment model and a water resources model: evaluation and implications of future changes over the US Midwest |
| VerfasserIn |
N. Voisin, L. Liu, M. Hejazi, T. Tesfa, H. Li, M. Huang, Y. Liu, L. R. Leung |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1027-5606
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 11 ; Nr. 17, no. 11 (2013-11-18), S.4555-4575 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085998
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-4555-2013.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| An integrated model is being developed to advance our understanding of the
interactions between human activities, terrestrial system and water cycle,
and to evaluate how system interactions will be affected by a changing
climate at the regional scale. As a first step towards that goal, a global
integrated assessment model, which includes a water-demand model driven by
socioeconomics at regional and global scales, is coupled in a one-way fashion
with a land surface hydrology–routing–water resources management model. To
reconcile the scale differences between the models, a spatial and temporal
disaggregation approach is developed to downscale the annual regional water
demand simulations into a daily time step and subbasin representation. The
model demonstrates reasonable ability to represent the historical flow
regulation and water supply over the US Midwest (Missouri, Upper Mississippi,
and Ohio river basins). Implications for future flow regulation, water
supply, and supply deficit are investigated using climate change projections
with the B1 and A2 emission scenarios, which affect both natural flow and
water demand. Although natural flow is projected to increase under climate
change in both the B1 and A2 scenarios, there is larger uncertainty in the
changes of the regulated flow. Over the Ohio and Upper Mississippi river
basins, changes in flow regulation are driven by the change in natural flow
due to the limited storage capacity. However, both changes in flow and demand
have effects on the Missouri River Basin summer regulated flow. Changes in
demand are driven by socioeconomic factors, energy and food demands, global
markets and prices with rainfed crop demand handled directly by the land
surface modeling component. Even though most of the changes in supply deficit
(unmet demand) and the actual supply (met demand) are driven primarily by the
change in natural flow over the entire region, the integrated framework shows
that supply deficit over the Missouri River Basin sees an increasing
sensitivity to changes in demand in future periods. It further shows that the
supply deficit is six times as sensitive as the actual supply to changes in
flow and demand. A spatial analysis of the supply deficit demonstrates
vulnerabilities of urban areas located along mainstream with limited storage. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|