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| Titel |
Simulation of a persistent medium-term precipitation event over the western Iberian Peninsula |
| VerfasserIn |
S. C. Pereira, A. C. Carvalho, J. Ferreira, J. P. Nunes, J. J. Keizer, A. Rocha |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 10 ; Nr. 17, no. 10 (2013-10-02), S.3741-3758 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085943
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-3741-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
This study evaluated the performance of the WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting with Advanced Research) weather prediction model
in simulating the spatial and temporal patterns of an extreme rainfall
period over a complex orographic region in north-central Portugal. The
analysis was performed during the rainy season and, more specifically, the
month of December 2009. In this period, the region of interest was under the
influence of a sequential passage of low-pressure systems associated with
frontal surfaces. These synoptic weather patterns were responsible for long
periods of rainfall, resulting in a high monthly precipitation.
The WRF model results during the study period were furthermore evaluated
with the specific objective to complement gaps in the precipitation
recordings of a reference meteorological station (located in Pousadas), the
data of which are fundamental for hydrological studies in nearby
experimental catchments.
Three distinct WRF model runs were forced with initial fields and boundary
conditions obtained from a global domain model: (1) a reference experiment
with no nudging (RunRef); (2) observational nudging for a specific location,
i.e. the above-mentioned Pousadas reference station (RunObsN); and (3) nudging
to the analysed field (RunGridN). Model performance was evaluated, using
several statistical parameters, against a dataset of 27 rainfall stations
that were grouped by elevation. The three model runs had similar
performances, even though RunGridN resulted in a slight improvement.
Regarding the other two experiments, this improvement justifies its use for
complementing the surface measurements at the Pousadas reference station.
Overall model accuracy, expressed in root mean square error (RMSE), of the three runs was comparable
for the stations of the different elevations classes. Even so, it was
slightly better for stations in the lowlands than the highlands.
Furthermore, model predictions tended to be less accurate for stations
located in rough terrain and deep valleys. |
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