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| Titel |
A simple lumped model to convert air temperature into surface water temperature in lakes |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Piccolroaz, M. Toffolon, B. Majone |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 8 ; Nr. 17, no. 8 (2013-08-27), S.3323-3338 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085918
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-3323-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Water temperature in lakes is governed by a complex heat budget, where the
estimation of the single fluxes requires the use of several
hydro-meteorological variables that are not generally available. In order to
address this issue, we developed Air2Water, a simple physically based model
to relate the temperature of the lake superficial layer (epilimnion) to air
temperature only. The model has the form of an ordinary differential equation
that accounts for the overall heat exchanges with the atmosphere and the
deeper layer of the lake (hypolimnion) by means of simplified relationships,
which contain a few parameters (from four to eight in the different proposed
formulations) to be calibrated with the combined use of air and water
temperature measurements. The calibration of the parameters in a given case
study allows for one to estimate, in a synthetic way, the influence of the
main processes controlling the lake thermal dynamics, and to recognize the
atmospheric temperature as the main factor driving the evolution of the
system. In fact, under certain hypotheses the air temperature variation
implicitly contains proper information about the other major processes
involved, and hence in our approach is considered as the only input variable
of the model. In particular, the model is suitable to be applied over long
timescales (from monthly to interannual), and can be easily used to predict
the response of a lake to climate change, since projected air temperatures
are usually available by large-scale global circulation models. In this
paper, the model is applied to Lake Superior (USA–Canada) considering a
27 yr record of measurements, among which 18 yr are used for calibration
and the remaining 9 yr for model validation. The calibration of the model is
obtained by using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE)
methodology, which also allows for a sensitivity analysis of the parameters.
The results show remarkable agreement with measurements over the
entire data period. The use of air temperature reconstructed by satellite
imagery is also discussed. |
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