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| Titel |
Analyzing the effects of geological and parameter uncertainty on prediction of groundwater head and travel time |
| VerfasserIn |
X. He, T. O. Sonnenborg, F. Jørgensen, A.-S. Høyer, R. R. Møller, K. H. Jensen |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 8 ; Nr. 17, no. 8 (2013-08-16), S.3245-3260 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085913
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-3245-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Uncertainty of groundwater model predictions has in the past mostly been
related to uncertainty in the hydraulic parameters, whereas uncertainty in
the geological structure has not been considered to the same extent. Recent
developments in theoretical methods for quantifying geological uncertainty
have made it possible to consider this factor in groundwater modeling. In
this study we have applied the multiple-point geostatistical method (MPS)
integrated in the Stanford Geostatistical Modeling Software (SGeMS) for
exploring the impact of geological uncertainty on groundwater flow patterns
for a site in Denmark. Realizations from the geostatistical model were used
as input to a groundwater model developed from Modular three-dimensional
finite-difference ground-water model (MODFLOW) within the Groundwater Modeling System
(GMS) modeling environment. The uncertainty analysis was carried out in three
scenarios involving simulation of groundwater head distribution and travel
time. The first scenario implied 100 stochastic geological models all
assigning the same hydraulic parameters for the same geological units. In
the second scenario the same 100 geological models were subjected to model
optimization, where the hydraulic parameters for each of them were estimated
by calibration against observations of hydraulic head and stream discharge.
In the third scenario each geological model was run with 216 randomized sets
of parameters. The analysis documented that the uncertainty on the
conceptual geological model was as significant as the uncertainty related to
the embedded hydraulic parameters. |
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