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| Titel |
Virtual water trade flows and savings under climate change |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Konar, Z. Hussein, N. Hanasaki, D. L. Mauzerall, I. Rodriguez-Iturbe |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 8 ; Nr. 17, no. 8 (2013-08-15), S.3219-3234 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085911
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-3219-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The international trade of food commodities links water and food systems,
with important implications for both water and food security. The embodied
water resources associated with food trade are referred to as "virtual water
trade". We present the first study of the impact of climate change on global
virtual water trade flows and associated savings for the year 2030. In order
to project virtual water trade and savings under climate change, it is
essential to obtain projections of both bilateral crop trade and the virtual
water content of crops in each country of production. We use the Global Trade
Analysis Project model to estimate bilateral crop trade under changes in
agricultural productivity for rice, soy, and wheat. We use the H08 global
hydrologic model to determine the impact of climatic changes to crop
evapotranspiration for rice, soy, and wheat in each country of production.
Then, we combine projections of bilateral crop trade with estimates of
virtual water content to obtain virtual water trade flows under climate
change. We find that the total volume of virtual water trade is likely to go
down under climate change, due to decreased crop trade from higher crop
prices under scenarios of declining crop yields and due to decreased virtual
water content under high agricultural productivity scenarios. However, the
staple food trade is projected to save more water across most climate change
scenarios, largely because the wheat trade re-organizes into a structure
where large volumes of wheat are traded from relatively water-efficient
exporters to less efficient importers. |
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