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| Titel |
Probabilistic flood hazard mapping: effects of uncertain boundary conditions |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Domeneghetti, S. Vorogushyn, A. Castellarin, B. Merz, A. Brath |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 17, no. 8 ; Nr. 17, no. 8 (2013-08-05), S.3127-3140 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085905
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-17-3127-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Comprehensive flood risk assessment studies should quantify the global
uncertainty in flood hazard estimation, for instance by mapping inundation
extents together with their confidence intervals. This appears of particular
importance in the case of flood hazard assessments along dike-protected
reaches, where the possibility of occurrence of dike failures may
considerably enhance the uncertainty. We present a methodology to derive
probabilistic flood maps in dike-protected flood prone areas, where several
sources of uncertainty are taken into account. In particular, this paper
focuses on a 50 km reach of River Po (Italy) and three major sources of
uncertainty in hydraulic modelling and flood mapping: uncertainties in the
(i) upstream and (ii) downstream boundary conditions, and (iii) uncertainties
in dike failures. Uncertainties in the definition of upstream boundary
conditions (i.e. design-hydrographs) are assessed through a copula-based
bivariate analysis of flood peaks and volumes. Uncertainties in the
definition of downstream boundary conditions are characterised by uncertainty
in the rating curve with confidence intervals which reflect discharge
measurement and interpolation errors. The effects of uncertainties in
boundary conditions and randomness of dike failures are assessed by means of
the Inundation Hazard Assessment Model (IHAM), a recently proposed hybrid
probabilistic-deterministic model that considers three different dike failure
mechanisms: overtopping, piping and micro-instability due to seepage. The
results of the study show that the IHAM-based analysis enables probabilistic
flood hazard mapping and provides decision-makers with a fundamental piece of
information for devising and implementing flood risk mitigation strategies in
the presence of various sources of uncertainty. |
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