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| Titel |
Modeling the present and future impact of aviation on climate: an AOGCM approach with online coupled chemistry |
| VerfasserIn |
P. Huszar, H. Teyssèdre, M. Michou, A. Voldoire, D. J. L. Olivié, D. Saint-Martin, D. Cariolle, S. Senesi, D. Salas y Melia, A. Alias, F. Karcher, P. Ricaud, T. Halenka |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 13, no. 19 ; Nr. 13, no. 19 (2013-10-11), S.10027-10048 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085745
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-13-10027-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Our work is among the first that use an atmosphere-ocean general circulation
model (AOGCM) with online chemistry to evaluate the impact of future aviation
emissions on temperature. Other particularities of our study include
non-scaling to the aviation emissions, and the analysis of models' transient
response using ensemble simulations. The model we use is the
Météo-France CNRM-CM5.1 earth system model extended with the REPROBUS
chemistry scheme. The time horizon of our interest is 1940–2100, assuming
the A1B SRES scenario. We investigate the present and future impact of
aviation emissions of CO2, NOx and H2O on climate, taking into
account changes in greenhouse gases, contrails and contrail-induced cirrus
(CIC). As in many transport-related impact studies, we distinguish between
the climate impacts of CO2 emissions and those of non-CO2 emissions.
Aviation-produced aerosol is not considered in the study. Our modeling system
simulated a notable sea-ice bias in the Arctic, and therefore results
concerning the surface should be viewed with caution. The global averaged
near-surface CO2 impact reaches around 0.1 K by the end of the 21st
century, while the non-CO2 impact reaches 0.2 K in the second half
of the century. The NOx emissions impact is almost negligible in our
simulations, as our aviation-induced ozone production is small. As a
consequence, the non-CO2 signal is very similar to the CIC signal. The
seasonal analysis shows that the strongest warming due to aviation is modeled
for the late summer and early autumn. In the stratosphere, a significant
cooling is attributed to aviation CO2 emissions (−0.25 K by 2100). A
−0.3 K temperature decrease is modeled when considering all the aviation
emissions, but no significant signal appears from the CIC or NOx
forcings in the stratosphere. |
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