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| Titel |
NOx emissions in China: historical trends and future perspectives |
| VerfasserIn |
B. Zhao, S. X. Wang, H. Liu, J. Y. Xu, K. Fu, Z. Klimont, J. M. Hao, K. B. He, J. Cofala, M. Amann |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 13, no. 19 ; Nr. 13, no. 19 (2013-10-08), S.9869-9897 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085736
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-13-9869-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are key pollutants for the improvement of ambient
air quality. Within this study we estimated the historical NOx
emissions in China for the period 1995–2010, and calculated future NOx
emissions every five years until 2030 under six emission scenarios. Driven
by the fast growth of energy consumption, we estimate the NOx emissions
in China increased rapidly from 11.0 Mt in 1995 to 26.1 Mt in 2010. Power
plants, industry and transportation were major sources of NOx
emissions, accounting for 28.4%, 34.0%, and 25.4% of the total
NOx emissions in 2010, respectively. Two energy scenarios, a business
as usual scenario (BAU) and an alternative policy scenario (PC), were
developed to project future energy consumption. In 2030, total energy
consumption is projected to increase by 64% and 27% from 2010 level
respectively. Three sets of end-of-pipe pollution control measures,
including baseline, progressive, and stringent control case, were developed
for each energy scenario, thereby constituting six emission scenarios. By
2030, the total NOx emissions are projected to increase (compared to
2010) by 36% in the baseline while policy cases result in reduction up to
61% in the most ambitious case with stringent control measures. More than
a third of the reduction achieved by 2030 between least and most ambitious
scenario comes from power sector, and more than half is distributed equally
between industry and transportation sectors. Selective catalytic reduction
dominates the NOx emission reductions in power plants, while life style
changes, control measures for industrial boilers and cement production are
major contributors to reductions in industry. Timely enforcement of
legislation on heavy-duty vehicles would contribute significantly to
NOx emission reductions. About 30% of the NOx emission
reduction in 2020 and 40% of the NOx emission reduction in 2030
could be treated as the ancillary benefit of energy conservation.
Sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the impact of key factors on
future emissions. |
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