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| Titel |
Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Stenke, C. R. Hoyle, B. Luo, E. Rozanov, J. Gröbner, L. Maag, S. Brönnimann, T. Peter |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 13, no. 19 ; Nr. 13, no. 19 (2013-10-02), S.9713-9729 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085727
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-13-9713-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for
life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects
are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to
one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model
simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic
previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry
climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than
previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical
nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work
assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each
applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt
("Hiroshima size") against the major population centers, resulting in the
emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms
expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties
related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning
assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been
addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1
to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation
leads to a rapid self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and
mesosphere within a few days after emission, where they remain for several
years. Consequently, the model suggests earth's surface temperatures to drop
by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the
soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial
reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending
on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated
with an increase in sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere
winter, which expose the continental land masses of North America and
Eurasia to a cooling of several degrees. In the stratosphere, the strong
heating leads to an acceleration of catalytic ozone loss and, consequently,
to enhancements of UV radiation at the ground. In contrast to surface
temperature and precipitation changes, which show a linear dependence to the
soot burden, there is a saturation effect with respect to stratospheric ozone
chemistry. Soot emissions of 5 Tg lead to an ozone column reduction
of almost 50% in northern high latitudes, while emitting 12 Tg
only increases ozone loss by a further 10%. In summary, this study, though
using a different chemistry climate model, corroborates the previous
investigations with respect to the atmospheric impacts. In addition to these
persistent effects, the present study draws attention to episodically cold
phases, which would likely add to the severity of human harm worldwide. The
best insurance against such a catastrophic development would be the
delegitimization of nuclear weapons. |
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