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| Titel |
European atmosphere in 2050, a regional air quality and climate perspective under CMIP5 scenarios |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Colette, B. Bessagnet, R. Vautard, S. Szopa, S. Rao, S. Schucht, Z. Klimont, L. Menut, G. Clain, F. Meleux, G. Curci, L. Rouïl |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 13, no. 15 ; Nr. 13, no. 15 (2013-08-02), S.7451-7471 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085604
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-13-7451-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
To quantify changes in air pollution over Europe at the 2050 horizon, we
designed a comprehensive modelling system that captures the external factors
considered to be most relevant, and that relies on up-to-date and consistent
sets of air pollution and climate policy scenarios. Global and regional
climate as well as global chemistry simulations are based on the recent
representative concentration pathways (RCP) produced for the Fifth
Assessment Report (AR5) of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) whereas regional air quality modelling is
based on the updated emissions scenarios produced in the framework of the
Global Energy Assessment. We explored two diverse scenarios: a reference
scenario where climate policies are absent and a mitigation scenario which
limits global temperature rise to within 2 °C by the end of this
century.
This first assessment of projected air quality and climate at the regional
scale based on CMIP5 (5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)
climate simulations is in line with the existing literature using CMIP3. The
discrepancy between air quality simulations obtained with a climate model or
with meteorological reanalyses is pointed out. Sensitivity simulations show
that the main factor driving future air quality projections is air pollutant
emissions, rather than climate change or intercontinental transport of
pollution. Whereas the well documented "climate penalty" that weights upon
ozone (increase of ozone pollution with global warming) over Europe is
confirmed, other features appear less robust compared to the literature,
such as the impact of climate on PM2.5. The quantitative disentangling
of external factors shows that, while several published studies focused on
the climate penalty bearing upon ozone, the contribution of the global ozone
burden is somewhat overlooked in the literature. |
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