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| Titel |
A first-order second-moment calculation for seismic hazard assessment with the consideration of uncertain magnitude conversion |
| VerfasserIn |
J. P. Wang, X. Yun, Y.-M. Wu |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 13, no. 10 ; Nr. 13, no. 10 (2013-10-22), S.2649-2657 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085540
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-13-2649-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Earthquake size can be described with different magnitudes
for different purposes. For example, local magnitude ML is usually
adopted to compile an earthquake catalog, and moment magnitude Mw is
often prescribed by a ground motion model. Understandably, when inconsistent
units are encountered in an earthquake analysis, magnitude conversion needs
to be performed beforehand. However, the conversion is not expected at full
certainty owing to the model error of empirical relationships. This paper
introduces a novel first-order second-moment (FOSM) calculation to estimate
the annual rate of earthquake motion (or seismic hazard) on a probabilistic
basis, including the consideration of the uncertain magnitude conversion and
three other sources of earthquake uncertainties. In addition to the
methodology, this novel FOSM application to engineering seismology is
demonstrated in this paper with a case study. With a local ground motion
model, magnitude conversion relationship and earthquake catalog, the
analysis shows that the best-estimate annual rate of peak ground acceleration (PGA) greater than
0.18 g
(induced by earthquakes) is 0.002 per year at a site in Taipei, given the
uncertainties of magnitude conversion, earthquake size, earthquake location,
and motion attenuation. |
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