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| Titel |
A preliminary evaluation of surface latent heat flux as an earthquake precursor |
| VerfasserIn |
W. Zhang, J. Zhao, W. Wang, H. Ren, L. Chen, G. Yan |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 13, no. 10 ; Nr. 13, no. 10 (2013-10-22), S.2639-2647 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085539
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-13-2639-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The relationship between variations in surface latent heat
flux (SLHF) and marine earthquakes has been a popular subject of recent
seismological studies. So far, there are two key problems: how to identify
the abnormal SLHF variations from complicated background signals, and how to
ensure that the anomaly results from an earthquake. In this paper, we proposed
four adjustable parameters for identification, classified the relationship
and analyzed SLHF changes several months before six marine earthquakes by
employing daily SLHF data. Additionally, we also quantitatively evaluate the
long-term relationship between earthquakes and SLHF anomalies for the six
study areas over a 20 yr period preceding each earthquake. The results
suggest the following: (1) before the South Sandwich Islands, Papua, Samoa and Haiti
earthquakes, the SLHF variations above their individual background levels
have relatively low amplitudes and are difficult to be considered as
precursory anomalies; (2) after removing the clustering effect, most of the
anomalies prior to these six earthquakes are not temporally related to any
earthquake in each study area in time sequence; (3) for each case, apart from
Haiti, more than half of the studied earthquakes, which were moderate and even
devastating earthquakes (larger than Mw = 5.3), had no precursory variations in
SLHF; and (4) the correlation between SLHF and seismic activity depends
largely on data accuracy and parameter settings. Before any application of
SLHF data on earthquake prediction, we suggest that anomaly-identifying
standards should be established based on long-term regional analysis to
eliminate subjectivity. Furthermore, other factors that may result in SLHF
variations should also be carefully considered. |
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