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| Titel |
Contribution of land use changes to future flood damage along the river Meuse in the Walloon region |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Beckers, B. Dewals, S. Erpicum, S. Dujardin, S. Detrembleur, J. Teller, M. Pirotton, P. Archambeau |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 13, no. 9 ; Nr. 13, no. 9 (2013-09-23), S.2301-2318 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085516
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-13-2301-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Managing flood risk in Europe is a critical issue because climate change is
expected to increase flood hazard in many european countries. Beside climate
change, land use evolution is also a key factor influencing future flood
risk. The core contribution of this paper is a new methodology to model
residential land use evolution. Based on two climate scenarios ("dry" and
"wet"), the method is applied to study the evolution of flood damage by
2100 along the river Meuse. Nine urbanization scenarios were developed: three
of them assume a "current trend" land use evolution, leading to a
significant urban sprawl, while six others assume a dense urban development,
characterized by a higher density and a higher diversity of urban functions
in the urbanized areas. Using damage curves, the damage estimation was
performed by combining inundation maps for the present and future 100 yr
flood with present and future land use maps and specific prices. According to
the dry scenario, the flood discharge is expected not to increase. In this
case, land use changes increase flood damages by 1–40%, to
€334–462 million in 2100. In the wet scenario, the relative
increase in flood damage is 540–630%, corresponding to total
damages of €2.1–2.4 billion. In this extreme scenario, the
influence of climate on the overall damage is 3–8 times higher than the
effect of land use change. However, for seven municipalities along the river
Meuse, these two factors have a comparable influence. Consequently, in the
"wet" scenario and at the level of the whole Meuse valley in the Walloon
region, careful spatial planning would reduce the increase in flood damage by
no more than 11–23%; but, at the level of several municipalities, more
sustainable spatial planning would reduce future flood damage to a much
greater degree. |
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