 |
| Titel |
Risk evolution: how can changes in the built environment influence the potential loss of natural hazards? |
| VerfasserIn |
B. Schwendtner, M. Papathoma-Köhle, T. Glade |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
1561-8633
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 13, no. 9 ; Nr. 13, no. 9 (2013-09-10), S.2195-2207 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085509
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-13-2195-2013.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| Alpine areas often suffer significant loss and damage due to a range of
natural processes such as landslides, debris flows, snow avalanches or
floods. Sealing of the soil surface, settling in endangered areas and
enhanced human intervention in the natural settings, as well as
socio-economic changes, increase the risk and susceptibility of built
environments to natural hazards and the costs of the consequences in a
spatio-temporal context. The present study examines the loss estimation of a
particular debris flow event for different points in time. The event
occurred in August 1987, affected the municipality Martell in South
Tyrol, Italy, and resulted in a total cost of € 25 million. The
approach presented in this paper focuses on the changes of the land use and
settlement expansion in the area since 1954 and attempts to assess the
monetary impact of a similar event, which could have happened before (1954,
1985) or following the actual event (1992, 1999, 2006). The method applied
is based on the use of a vulnerability curve which was developed for the
specific area, based on the documentation of the damage of the 1987 event.
Based on this curve, a loss estimation was carried out in order to visualise
the risk evolution in a period of 52 yr (1954 to 2006). The results show
a significant increase in the extent of the built environment (number, size
and value of buildings) which consequently reflect an increase of the
potential overall loss through the years. The method can be used in order to
assess the potential loss for future scenarios based on different spatial
patterns of the built environment. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|