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| Titel |
MEDSLIK-II, a Lagrangian marine surface oil spill model for short-term forecasting – Part 2: Numerical simulations and validations |
| VerfasserIn |
M. De Dominicis, N. Pinardi, G. Zodiatis, R. Archetti |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1991-959X
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Geoscientific Model Development ; 6, no. 6 ; Nr. 6, no. 6 (2013-11-01), S.1871-1888 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085010
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/gmd-6-1871-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In this paper we use MEDSLIK-II, a Lagrangian marine surface oil spill model
described in Part 1 (De Dominicis et al., 2013), to simulate oil slick transport
and transformation processes for realistic oceanic cases, where satellite or
drifting buoys data are available for verification. The model is coupled with
operational oceanographic currents, atmospheric analyses winds and remote
sensing data for initialization. The sensitivity of the oil spill simulations
to several model parameterizations is analyzed and the results are validated
using surface drifters, SAR (synthetic aperture radar) and optical satellite
images in different regions of the Mediterranean Sea. It is found that the
forecast skill of Lagrangian trajectories largely depends on the accuracy of
the Eulerian ocean currents: the operational models give useful estimates of
currents, but high-frequency (hourly) and high-spatial resolution is
required, and the Stokes drift velocity has to be added, especially in
coastal areas. From a numerical point of view, it is found that a realistic
oil concentration reconstruction is obtained using an oil tracer grid
resolution of about 100 m, with at least 100 000 Lagrangian particles.
Moreover, sensitivity experiments to uncertain model parameters show that the
knowledge of oil type and slick thickness are, among all the others, key
model parameters affecting the simulation results. Considering acceptable for
the simulated trajectories a maximum spatial error of the order of three
times the horizontal resolution of the Eulerian ocean currents, the
predictability skill for particle trajectories is from 1 to 2.5 days
depending on the specific current regime. This suggests that
re-initialization of the simulations is required every day. |
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