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| Titel |
Intercomparison of temperature trends in IPCC CMIP5 simulations with observations, reanalyses and CMIP3 models |
| VerfasserIn |
J. Xu, A. M. Jr. Powell, L. Zhao |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1991-959X
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Geoscientific Model Development ; 6, no. 5 ; Nr. 6, no. 5 (2013-10-21), S.1705-1714 |
| Datensatznummer |
250085002
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/gmd-6-1705-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
On the basis of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and
the climate model simulations covering 1979 through 2005, the temperature
trends and their uncertainties have been examined to note the similarities
or differences compared to the radiosonde observations, reanalyses and the
third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) simulations. The results
show noticeable discrepancies for the estimated temperature trends in the
four data groups (radiosonde, reanalysis, CMIP3 and CMIP5), although
similarities can be observed.
Compared to the CMIP3 model simulations, the simulations in some of the CMIP5
models were improved. The CMIP5 models displayed a negative temperature
trend in the stratosphere closer to the strong negative trend seen in the
observations. However, the positive tropospheric trend in the tropics is
overestimated by the CMIP5 models relative to CMIP3 models. While some of
the models produce temperature trend patterns more highly correlated with
the observed patterns in CMIP5, the other models (such as CCSM4 and
IPSL_CM5A-LR) exhibit the reverse tendency. The CMIP5
temperature trend uncertainty was significantly reduced in most areas,
especially in the Arctic and Antarctic stratosphere, compared to the CMIP3
simulations.
Similar to the CMIP3, the CMIP5 simulations overestimated the tropospheric
warming in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere and underestimated the
stratospheric cooling. The crossover point where tropospheric warming
changes into stratospheric cooling occurred near 100 hPa in the tropics,
which is higher than in the radiosonde and reanalysis data. The result is
likely related to the overestimation of convective activity over the
tropical areas in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models.
Generally, for the temperature trend estimates associated with the numerical
models including the reanalyses and global climate models, the uncertainty
in the stratosphere is much larger than that in the troposphere, and the
uncertainty in the Antarctic is the largest. In addition, note that the
reanalyses show the largest uncertainty in the lower tropical stratosphere,
and the CMIP3 simulations show the largest uncertainty in both the south and
north polar regions. |
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