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| Titel |
Downscaling a global climate model to simulate climate change over the US and the implication on regional and urban air quality |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Trail, A. P. Tsimpidi, P. Liu, K. Tsigaridis, Y. Hu, A. Nenes, A. G. Russell |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1991-959X
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Geoscientific Model Development ; 6, no. 5 ; Nr. 6, no. 5 (2013-09-09), S.1429-1445 |
| Datensatznummer |
250084985
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/gmd-6-1429-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making
conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use
spectral nudging with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to
downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to
2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the contiguous United States in order to compare the resulting
meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four
seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results
are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF regional climate model
(RCM) to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and
choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with
in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional
climate conditions down to a 12 km by 12 km resolution, as
well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major
US cities. The high-resolution simulations produce somewhat different results
than the coarse-resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the
analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air
quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance
ozone levels in four regions of the US during fall (western US, Texas,
northeastern, and southeastern US), one region during summer (Texas), and one
region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during
spring (Northeast). Changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone
levels are increased temperatures and stagnation along with decreased
precipitation and ventilation. We also find that daily peak temperatures tend
to increase in most major cities in the US, which would increase the risk of
health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more
comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation
and removal of air pollutants. |
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