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| Titel |
Consistent increase in Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability across CMIP-5 models |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Menon, A. Levermann, J. Schewe, Jascha Lehmann, K. Frieler |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
2190-4979
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Earth System Dynamics ; 4, no. 2 ; Nr. 4, no. 2 (2013-08-28), S.287-300 |
| Datensatznummer |
250084952
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/esd-4-287-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The possibility of an impact of global warming on the Indian monsoon is of
critical importance for the large population of this region. Future
projections within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP-3)
showed a wide range of trends with varying magnitude and sign across models.
Here the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is evaluated in 20 CMIP-5 models for
the period 1850 to 2100. In the new generation of climate models, a consistent
increase in seasonal mean rainfall during the summer monsoon periods arises.
All models simulate stronger seasonal mean rainfall in the future compared to
the historic period under the strongest warming scenario RCP-8.5. Increase in
seasonal mean rainfall is the largest for the RCP-8.5 scenario compared to
other RCPs. Most of the models show a northward shift in monsoon circulation
by the end of the 21st century compared to the historic period under
the RCP-8.5 scenario. The interannual variability of the Indian monsoon
rainfall also shows a consistent positive trend under unabated global
warming. Since both the long-term increase in monsoon rainfall as well as the
increase in interannual variability in the future is robust across a wide
range of models, some confidence can be attributed to these projected trends. |
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