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| Titel |
Evaluation of ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins |
| VerfasserIn |
Jinyin Ye, Yi He, Florian Pappenberger, Hannah L. Cloke, Desmond Y. Manful |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2013
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 15 (2013) |
| Datensatznummer |
250084579
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Providing probabilistic forecasts using Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPSs) have become increasingly popular in the meteorological and hydrological communities. Compared to conventional deterministic forecasts, probabilistic forecasts may provide more reliable forecasts from a few hours to a number of days ahead, and hence are regarded as better tools for users to take uncertainties into consideration and hedge again weather risks. It is essential to evaluate performance of raw ensemble forecasts and their potential values in forecasting extreme hydro-meteorological events. This study aims to evaluate ECMWF’s medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation over the period 2008/01/01-2012/09/30 on a selected mid-latitude river basin, the Huai river basin in central-east China. The evaluation unit is catchment, and assesses forecast performance on catchments with various properties, during flooding and non-flooding seasons, at 5 different accumulated time steps, and at all available lead times. The study does not evaluate any hydrological applications of the ensemble precipitation forecasts, but its results have direct implications in hydrological forecasts should these ensemble precipitation forecasts be employed in hydrology. |
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