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| Titel |
A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change |
| VerfasserIn |
Gijs Janssen, Alexander Bakker, Remco van Ek, Annemarie Groot, Joop Kroes, Marijn Kuiper, Peter Schipper, Paul van Walsum, Wieger Wamelink, Janet Mol |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2013
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 15 (2013) |
| Datensatznummer |
250083787
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can
benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework,
capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present
in the catchments.
In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional
dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these
models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do
not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and
hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on
groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent
terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on
climate change itself.
In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled
existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use
at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework
consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose
zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3
(nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online
(i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and
CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone
water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain
WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological
prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3.
The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision
making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the
Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change
scenarios developed by KNMI for precipitation and reference evapotranspiration according to
Penman-Monteith. Special focus in the project was on the role of uncertainty. How valid is
the information that is generated by this modelling framework? What are the most important
uncertainties of the input data, how do they affect the results of the model chain and how can
the uncertainties of the data, results, and model concepts be quantified and communicated?
Besides these technical issues, an important part of the study was devoted to the
perception of stakeholders. Stakeholder analysis and additional working sessions yielded
insight into how the models, their results and the uncertainties are perceived, how the
modelling framework and results connect to the stakeholders’ information demands and
what kind of additional information is needed for adequate support on decision
making. |
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