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| Titel |
Improving the anomaly initialisation for decadal predictions |
| VerfasserIn |
Mihaela Caian, Klaus Wyser, Louis-Philipe Caron, Colin Jones |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2013
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 15 (2013) |
| Datensatznummer |
250082963
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A set of decadal prediction experiments using the EC-Earth model
is analysed. A 10-member ensemble was started every year in the period
1960-2005 from initial conditions based on observed anomalies of
ocean and sea-ice. Slow-flow pertubations of the anomalies are generated
for the ocean (time-lagged anlysis) and ice (perturbed climatology) initial
states.
Our analysis of the results indicates a sensitivity of the decadal prediction
to the representation of the main coupled modes of variability at
initial time. A new initialisation method has been developed aiming to improve
the representation of observed modes' phase at initial time.
This is a spectral method focused on process initialisation through selection
of the initialised modes and projection in model's space.
Five members of each startdate were redone with the improved anomaly
initialisation which resulted in increased predictive skills. |
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