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| Titel |
Probability of occurrence of rogue sea states |
| VerfasserIn |
Elzbieta Bitner-Gregersen, Alessandro Toffoli |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2013
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 15 (2013) |
| Datensatznummer |
250079680
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Owing to many research efforts in the last decade, the occurrence of rogue waves, their
mechanism, and detailed dynamic properties are now becoming clear. Consistency between
numerical models and experimental data has been documented by several authors. The focus
is now on forcing terms like wind and current and wave breaking that are not typically
included. Despite recent achievements, consensus on the definition of rogue waves
and particularly their probability of occurrence has not been reached yet. Such
consensus, however, is essential for the evaluation of possible revision of offshore
standards and classification society rules, which currently do not include rogue waves
explicitly.
It is well known that sea states characterised by high steepness and narrow
directional distribution are prone to modulational instability mechanisms and hence
the formation of rogue waves. Further, wave systems crossing under a particular
angle can also be responsible for generation of these abnormal waves. The present
study is addressing these rogue-wave-prone sea states and their probabilities of
occurrence. The analysis is based on hindcast data from the North Atlantic, the North
Sea and Australia. The data have been generated by the wave model WAM and
are covering the time period ranging from 10 to 50 years. Long-term probabilistic
description of rogue-wave-prone sea state characteristics is established. Further, an
attempt is made to provide probability of occurrence of such rogue-wave-prone sea
states. Low, intermediate and high sea states considered. The results are discussed
from the perspective of design and operations of ships and offshore structures. |
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