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| Titel |
Studying future weather using a dynamically consistent method |
| VerfasserIn |
Lucinda Rasmijn, Gerard van der Schrier, Jan Barkmeijer, Andreas Sterl, WIlco Hazeleger |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2013
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 15 (2013) |
| Datensatznummer |
250077863
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The study of future weather, and in particular the question on changes in the frequency and
amplitude of future extreme climatic events, is essential for impact studies and developing
adaptation measures. As such, these studies are relevant for local and national governments
who make extensive use of them.
Assessing future weather requires an estimate of the influence of internal climate
variability, including the ability to identify and quantify feedback processes between
atmospheric dynamics and its boundary conditions. Using KNMIs state-of-the-art global
earth-system model, EC-Earth, it is possible to do this for the first time in a dynamically
consistent way. This is ensured by the application of a forcing sensitivity technique, which
produces optimal model tendency perturbations. These are determined under the
requirement that they force the model to reproduce, on average, a prescribed circulation
change, leaving the synoptic scale free to interact with and adjust to the large-scale
circulation.
Using this technique it is possible to study weather characteristics of a possible climate in
2050, taking into account persistent circulation changes representing, for example, a more
persistent westerly circulation in winter and a more persistent easterly circulation in summer.
Also, it is possible to provide the boundary conditions for regional climate model
simulations, such as RACMO. This makes it possible to reproduce climatological
interesting years, for example the exceedingly hot summer of 2003, under 2050
conditions.
The results of these experiments will be presented to the audience, as well as a
brief description of the forced sensitivity method applied. The importance of this
technique for climate research will be pointed out and compared to current methods. |
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