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| Titel |
The hindcast and forecast of sea ice in the Arctic by FIO-ESM based on CMIP5 experiments |
| VerfasserIn |
Qi Shu, Fangli Qiao, Zhenya Song |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2013
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 15 (2013) |
| Datensatznummer |
250077713
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| Zusammenfassung |
| FIO-ESM (First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model) is an
atmosphere-wave-ocean-ice-land coupled model. The non-breaking wave-induced vertical
mixing in the ocean is considered by FIO-ESM. The hindcast and forecast of Arctic sea ice
by FIO-ESM based on CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) historical
and future climate projections experiments are evaluated and analyzed. Compared with
satellite observations, the climatological Arctic sea ice extent can be well simulated by
FIO-ESM. FIO-ESM can reproduce monthly climatological Arctic sea ice extent within
±15% of observations. The decline of the Arctic sea ice during 1979-2005 can also be
simulated by FIO-ESM, however the simulated sea ice extent decreased trend is
2.24Ã104km2per year which is less than the observation trend (4.72Ã104km2per year). The
forecast for 21st century shows that the Arctic sea ice trends will be depend on different
RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways). The Arctic sea ice extent will increase
under RCP26 and RCP45, and the Arctic sea ice extent will have no significant
trend under RCP60, while the Arctic sea ice extent will continue to decline under
RCP85. The sea ice response to the non-breaking wave-induced mixing is checked. |
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