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| Titel |
Arctic sea ice evolution in CMIP5 extended RCP scenarios |
| VerfasserIn |
Paul Hezel, Thierry Fichefet, François Massonnet |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2013
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 15 (2013) |
| Datensatznummer |
250076766
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The global climate models that particiapated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project 5 (CMIP5) show strong declines in sea ice extent and volume under the some
of the Radiative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios through the year 2100,
including the transformation from perennial to seasonal ice cover in multiple models in
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. These simulations were extended through the year 2300 by a
subset of the CMIP5 modeling groups for the three scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and
RCP8.5. The radiative forcing trajectories are decreasing, constant, and increasing
respectively through 2300. Here, we examine the time evolution of Arctic sea ice in these
extended RCP scenarios to gauge the response to these forcing pathways. In the
RCP2.6 scenario, the summer Arctic sea ice extent begins to slowly recover almost
immediately following the peak radiative forcing in 2044 in 6 of the 9 models that ran the
extended RCP2.6 simulations. The extended RCP4.5 scenario maintains constant
radiative forcing at 4.5 W m-2 through 2300 and demonstrates continued summer sea
ice decline due to continued warming on longer time scales. The different sea ice
respsonse in these two scenarios implies that sea ice extent could recover if and when
radiative forcing from greenhouse gases were to decrease. In the RCP8.5 scenario, we
show that the winter sea ice extent disappears in 7 of 9 models between 2135 and
2274, at a radiative forcing between 10 and 12 W m-2. We discuss the reasons that
cause the lack of ice formation in the models during the winter under this particular
scenario. |
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