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| Titel |
Increasing erosion risk due to the climate change in a small forested catchment of Sopron Hills |
| VerfasserIn |
Péter Csáfordi, Borbála Gálos, Péter Kalicz, Zoltán Gribovszki |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2013
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 15 (2013) |
| Datensatznummer |
250076587
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| Zusammenfassung |
| According to the climate predictions, hydro-meteorological conditions expected to change in
the future, leading to the alteration of erosion dynamics. Based on regional climate
projections, climatic extremes may become more frequent for the end of the 21st century.
Intensive rainfall events may increase soil loss on the sloping areas resulting in potentially
significant on-site and off-site ecological and economical damages as well. The aim of our
study was to determine the erosion impact of single rainfall events in a selected hydrologic
year (2008-2009) for a 0.6 km2 forested catchment in the Sopron Hills using the erosion
model EROSION-3D. Furthermore the probability of intense and erosive rainfall
events has been analyzed for the time period 2071-2100, applying the regional
climate model REMO (developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology,
Hamburg).
Those rainfall events, where maximal 1-hour precipitation exceeded the 90th percentile
value (6 mm), have been classified as intensive rainfall events. The erosion-accumulation
maps based on the EROSION-3D model demonstrate well, that higher 1-hour precipitation
may cause higher rate of soil loss if every other influencing factor are fixed (e.g. land
cover, relief and runoff conditions) and the extension of erosion threatened area
increases.
Simulation results of the regional climate model REMO show no significant change of the
yearly precipitation sum for the time period 2071-2100 compared to the reference period
1961-1990, but this tendency can differ on seasonal scale. The largest changes are
expected for summer, both for the precipitation means and extremes. For the end of
the 21st century summer precipitation sum is projected to decrease by 18 %. The
frequency of hourly precipitation sums exceeding 0.1 mm can decrease by up to 30 %.
The 95th percentile value may be higher, which refer to the increase of the rainfall
intensity.
The projected change of the temporal distribution of precipitation, the expected increase
of the probability of intense rainfall events can also influence the soil loss due to water
erosion and the sediment rate available in the stream of the forested catchment. Land cover
changes driven by climatic and anthropogenic effects can increase the severity of the
consequences. Therefore the improvement of our methods and the adaptation of the results
for further catchments can provide an important basis to the adaptation and mitigation
strategies.
Acknowledgements: The research was financially supported by the
TÁMOP-4.2.2.A-11/1/KONV-2012-0013 joint EU-national research project and the
‘Deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt’ scholarship.
Keywords: soil loss, erosion modelling, climate change, frequency of extremes |
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