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| Titel |
Carbon and water fluxes coupling in past and future climate model projections |
| VerfasserIn |
Stefanos Mystakidis, Barla Vieli, Edouard Davin, Nicolas Gruber, Sonia Seneviratne |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2013
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 15 (2013) |
| Datensatznummer |
250076454
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Terrestrial ecosystems currently act as a carbon sink by absorbing about one third of the
anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, there are large uncertainties concerning the fate of
this carbon sink under a changing future climate. Extreme events such as droughts and heat
waves are expected to become more frequent and severe in some regions, which may reduce
the terrestrial carbon sink and may even turn it into a source in some regions. A better
understanding of the processes controlling these land-atmosphere CO2 exchanges is
therefore crucial in order to better constrain the carbon cycle response to future climate
change.
The objective of this study is to compare different model estimates of seasonal
terrestrial carbon fluxes over Europe and to infer the sensitivity of these fluxes to
different environmental factors such as soil moisture and temperature. Past and future
terrestrial CO2 fluxes are analysed based on a set of Land Surface Models (LSMs),
Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) and Earth System Models (ESMs) used
in the framework of the CARBO EXTREME, TRENDY and CMIP5 projects.
Overall, Gross Primary Production (GPP) and Net Biome Production (NBP) are highly
correlated with soil moisture in Central Europe and in the Mediterranean region, while in
Northern Europe these fluxes are highly correlated with temperature. Summer NBP
in the Mediterranean region becomes positive (CO2 source) when soil moisture
decreases below around 1.3 standard deviation, while spring NBP becomes positive
in Northern Europe when temperature is less than 2oC. Our results also suggest
a decrease in the terrestrial carbon sink over Europe during the 21st century, but the role
of soil moisture changes and variability in this decrease still remains uncertain. |
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