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| Titel |
The impact of initial condition perturbations in COSMO-DE-EPS under different synoptic-scale forcing |
| VerfasserIn |
Christian Kühnlein, Christian Keil, George Craig, Christoph Gebhardt, Martin Weissmann |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2013
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 15 (2013) |
| Datensatznummer |
250076413
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The convection-permitting ensemble prediction system COSMO-DE-EPS has been operational at Deutscher Wetterdienst since May 2012. The individual ensemble members are created by perturbing the lateral boundary conditions of the limited-area model to account for synoptic-scale uncertainty, and selected physics parameterisation schemes aiming at smaller-scale uncertainty. In addition, initial condition perturbations have been incorporated in a pragmatic approach consistent with the lateral boundary condition perturbations.
Here, we investigate the influence of the initial condition perturbations on the EPS forecasts with a focus on the predicted precipitation. For this purpose, the pre-operational setup of COSMO-DE-EPS is compared to a similar EPS without initial condition perturbations for a 3.5-month period in spring/summer 2011. The impact of the initial condition perturbations is studied under consideration of the prevailing regime of large-scale forcing using the concept of the convective adjustment time scale. |
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