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| Titel |
Precipitation nowcasting and warning at European scale |
| VerfasserIn |
Marc Berenguer, Daniel Sempere-Torres |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2013
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 15 (2013) |
| Datensatznummer |
250075291
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The recent production of OPERA radar mosaics at European scale in real time has enabled
the possibility of operational precipitation nowcasting based on the extrapolation of radar
mosaics over the Continent at the resolution of radar mosaics (4 km and every 15
minutes).
This study analyzes the performance of the nowcasting technique in the period
June-October 2012. The results show: (1) the impact of some artifacts contaminating the
radar precipitation maps, (2) a clear spatial variability of the nowcasting skill, and (3) the
dependence of the nowcasting performance on the meteorological situation.
Also, the ensemble nowcasting technique SBMcast (Berenguer et al. 2011) has been
adapted to the use of OPERA mosaics. The performance of this probabilistic technique has
been evaluated over a number of cases, also focusing on its ability to assess the uncertainty in
the generated nowcasts.
The final goal of this work, carried out within the framework of the Project on Prevention
of the EC Directorate General for Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection “HAZARD
Assessment based on rainfall European nowcasts”(HAREN), is using the generated nowcasts
for issuing intense rainfall warnings when the observed and nowcasted values exceed the
thresholds used throughout Europe.
REFERENCES
Berenguer, M., D. Sempere-Torres, and G. G. S. Pegram, 2011: SBMcast - An ensemble
nowcasting technique to assess the uncertainty in rainfall forecasts by Lagrangian
extrapolation. Journal of Hydrology, 404, 226-240. |
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