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Titel How to estimate future high temperature return levels?
VerfasserIn Sylvie Parey, Thi Thu Huong Hoang, Didier Dacunha-Castelle
Konferenz EGU General Assembly 2010
Medientyp Artikel
Sprache Englisch
Digitales Dokument PDF
Erschienen In: GRA - Volume 12 (2010)
Datensatznummer 250040648
 
Zusammenfassung
Climate change will induce more frequent heat waves in summer and the summer temperatures are likely to increase. High extreme temperatures are thus expected in the future. An estimation of such extremely high summer temperatures is needed at different time scales: for the next decades, in order to verify and eventually adapt currently running installations and for the end of the century to design future long lasting installations. In this presentation, different approaches to compute high temperature return levels in the future, taking climate change into account, will be described, compared and illustrated using a long observation series in Europe. These approaches involve the statistical extreme value theory, either in a non stationary context, or in the stationary context. The link between the evolutions of mean, variance and extremes has been studied and can be used to derive future return levels from the stationary extremes of the centred and normalised temperature and the future evolutions of the mean and variance.