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| Titel |
Projection of occurrence of extreme dry-wet years and seasons in Europe with stationary and non-stationary Standardized Precipitation Index |
| VerfasserIn |
Simone Russo, Paulo Barbosa, Alessandro Dosio, Andreas Sterl, Juergen Vogt |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2013
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 15 (2013) |
| Datensatznummer |
250075198
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The probability of the occurrence of extreme dry/wet years and seasons in Europe
are estimated by using both the Standarzided Precipitation Index (SPI) and the
Standarzided non-stationary Precipitation Index (SnsPI). The latter is defined as the SPI by
fitting precipitation data with non-stationary gamma distribution, in order to model
precipitation time dependence under climate change. Daily precipitation outputs from five
different regional climate models provided by the ENSEMBLES project, and bias
corrected, are used to predict extreme dry and wet hazard under the A1B emission
scenario. The five RCMs are selected in order that one is the best representative of
the ensemble mean, and four standing out as wet-cold, wet-warm, dry-cold and
dry-warm. All indicators are calculated both for each single RCM output and for the
ensemble of the five models over the period 1961-2098. Results show that, under
global warming, climate in Europe will significantly change from its current state
with the probability of the occurrence of extreme dry and wet years and seasons
increasing respectivelly over Southern dry and Northen wet regions. Comparing
non stationary and stationary indices the SnsPI seems to be more robust than the
common SPI in the prediction of precipitation changes with multimodel ensembles. |
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