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| Titel |
Changes in inter-annual variability of precipitation and temperature over Mexico and Central America from RegCM projections |
| VerfasserIn |
Ramon Fuentes-Franco, Erika Coppola, Gulilat Tefera Diro, Filippo Giorgi, Edgar G. Pavia, Federico Graef |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2013
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 15 (2013) |
| Datensatznummer |
250075082
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Future climate projections performed with the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) are used to analyze the future changes on inter-annual variability of precipitation and temperature over Mexico and Central America. Two different global circulation models from the Couple Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMPI5) are used as boundary conditions for two different RegCM4 configurations, which result in four different climate projections. Through a comparison of the precipitation annual cycles in reference period with future simulations, a shift in the annual cycle is found over Northwestern Mexico and Central America. During the rainy season (June to September), it is found an increase in the inter-annual variability of precipitation and temperature, together with a warming greater than 4ºC in the mean seasonal temperature and a drying of more than 20%. An increased warming on the Eastern Pacific Ocean compared to the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean potentially generates a strengthened North Atlantic Subtropical High Pressure and also a stronger Caribbean Low Level Jet. This future ENSO-like state appears to be the mechanism driving the drying over the region |
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