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| Titel |
Interglacial climate dynamics and advanced time series analysis |
| VerfasserIn |
Manfred Mudelsee, Miguel Bermejo, Peter Köhler, Gerrit Lohmann |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2013
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 15 (2013) |
| Datensatznummer |
250074653
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Studying the climate dynamics of past interglacials (IGs) helps to better assess the
anthropogenically influenced dynamics of the current IG, the Holocene. We select the IG
portions from the EPICA Dome C ice core archive, which covers the past 800 ka, to apply
methods of statistical time series analysis (Mudelsee 2010). The analysed variables
are deuterium/H (indicating temperature) (Jouzel et al. 2007), greenhouse gases
(Siegenthaler et al. 2005, Loulergue et al. 2008, L¨ü thi et al. 2008) and a model-co-derived
climate radiative forcing (Köhler et al. 2010). We select additionally high-resolution
sea-surface-temperature records from the marine sedimentary archive. The first statistical
method, persistence time estimation (Mudelsee 2002) lets us infer the ’climate memory’
property of IGs. Second, linear regression informs about long-term climate trends during
IGs. Third, ramp function regression (Mudelsee 2000) is adapted to look on abrupt
climate changes during IGs. We compare the Holocene with previous IGs in terms
of these mathematical approaches, interprete results in a climate context, assess
uncertainties and the requirements to data from old IGs for yielding results of ’acceptable’
accuracy.
This work receives financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (Project
ClimSens within the DFG Research Priority Program INTERDYNAMIK) and the European
Commission (Marie Curie Initial Training Network LINC, No. 289447, within the 7th
Framework Programme).
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