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| Titel |
Empirical assessment of the uncertainty in a 3-D geological framework model |
| VerfasserIn |
Murray Lark, Steve Mathers, Steve Thorpe, Sarah Arkley, Dave Morgan, Dave Lawrence |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2013
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 15 (2013) |
| Datensatznummer |
250073655
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Three-dimensional framework models are the state of the art to present geologists’
understanding of a region in a form that can be used to support planning and decision
making. However, there is little information on the uncertainty of such framework
models. We report a statistically-designed experiment in which each of five geologists
independently produced a framework model of a single region in the east of England. Each
geologist used a unique set of borehole observations from which to make their model.
Each set was made by withholding five unique validation boreholes from the set
of all available boreholes. The models were then compared with the validation
observations.
Between-modeller differences were not a significant source of variation in framework
model error. There was no evidence of systematic bias in the modelled depth for any unit, but
there was a statistically significant but small tendency for the mean error to increase with
depth below the surface. The confidence interval for the predicted height of a surface at a
point ranged from ±5.6 m to ±6.4 m. There was some evidence that the variance
of the model error increased with depth, but no evidence that it differed between
modellers or varied with the number of close-neighbouring boreholes or distance to the
outcrop.
These results are specific to the area that has been modelled, with relatively simple
geology, and they must also reflect the relatively dense set of boreholes available for
modelling. The method should be applied under a range of conditions to derive more general
conclusions, and benchmark quality measures for three-dimensional models of contrasting
terranes. |
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